Gold Analysis: XAUUSD Remains Bearish Amid Strong US Consumer Confidence Data

Overview

Today at 7:30 PM IST, the USA's New Home Sales data will be released. Forecasts suggest it will surpass previous figures, bolstered by high consumer confidence. If the home sales data is positive, we may witness a strong selling trend in gold. Conversely, a less favorable report could lead to short-term bullishness in gold prices.

Technical Analysis

4-Hour Frame Analysis

Trend Line: A trend line in the 4-hour chart indicates a predominantly bullish trend.
Demand Zone/Support: The immediate support zone is at 2306-2310. If gold reaches this zone before the news release, a small buy position could be profitable.
Support Levels: The 2295-2300 range is a critical support level. If the price hits this zone, a bounce-back is possible, presenting another buying opportunity.
Breakout Scenario: If the price breaks below the 2295-2300 support level, significant selling pressure is likely.

1-Hour Frame Analysis

Current Trend: On the 1-hour chart, gold has been bearish, forming a Change of Character (CHoCh) and then transitioning into an internal bullish structure. Recently, a bearish CHoCh emerged within this structure.
Key Levels: The Quasimodo level (QML) at 2327-2329 is crucial for intraday trading. This zone aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, making it a prime target for selling opportunities if the price reaches this level.

Trading Strategy

Intraday Selling: Focus on selling trades up to the 2295-2300 support level.
Buying Opportunities: Consider buying if the price hits the 2306-2310 or 2295-2300 zones and shows signs of a rebound.

Conclusion

This analysis provides a comprehensive outlook on XAUUSD, combining technical insights with upcoming economic data. It's essential to perform your own analysis and practice on a demo account before engaging in live trading. The market can be unpredictable, and proper preparation is crucial for success.

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