XAUUSD Movement Prediction Ahead of US Final GDP Data Release

Introduction

At 6:00 PM IST today, the USA's Final GDP data will be released. GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, is a crucial indicator of a country's economic health. It encompasses consumer spending, manufacturing activity, job growth, and more. Understanding its implications can help us predict market movements, especially for XAUUSD (gold vs. US dollar).

Impact of GDP Data on the Market

If today's GDP data indicates economic growth, the likelihood of cooling inflation decreases. This scenario strengthens the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period. Consequently, we may witness a bullish trend in the US dollar and significant selling pressure on gold.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Long-Term Support Level:

2286.50: This is a strong support level as last month's candle closed at this price. As long as this support remains unbroken, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish.

4-Hour Frame Analysis:

Support Zone (2295-2299): Currently, the price is at this support level. Although this could be a buying zone, the uncertainty surrounding the GDP data release makes it risky for long-term trades. It's advisable to limit trades to scalping until the news is released.
Retracement Level (2342-2345): This zone has a pending retracement and a Fair Value Gap (FVG), making it a valid selling zone. If the market reaches this level, we can look for selling opportunities.
Intraday/Scalping Trade Opportunities

1-Hour Frame Analysis:

First Point of Interest (2307-2310): This level is significant due to an unmitigated order block. If the price reaches this zone, consider short-term selling after confirmation.
Second Point of Interest (2335-2336): If the price breaks the 2307-2310 level, this is the next POI. However, it's better to wait for the price to reach the 2342-2345 retracement zone before selling.

Trading Advice

Trading during the release of high-impact news, such as GDP data, requires extensive experience. For now, observe the market closely after the news release before making any trades. It's crucial to practice and refine your strategies on a demo account before risking real capital.

Conclusion

This analysis aims to provide a framework for understanding potential market movements ahead of the US Final GDP data release. Always perform your analysis and practice on a demo account before engaging in live trading. Stay informed, trade wisely, and manage your risks effectively.

By following these guidelines and closely monitoring key support and resistance levels, you can make more informed trading decisions and better navigate the uncertainties of the market.

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