Technical Analysis of XAUUSD: Impact After Joe Biden Stepped Aside as a Presidential Candidate.

 Biden Steps Aside as Presidential Candidate

Statement on X:

• Biden: "I am stepping aside as a candidate."
• Biden: "I will focus on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term."
• Biden: "I will speak to the nation later this week about my decision."

Biden’s withdrawal from the upcoming U.S. presidential election has sent shockwaves through the market. Most asset classes are holding steady as investors digest this event. The dollar remains poised at its high from last Friday, with expectations of strengthening as Trump’s advocacy may favor the greenback.

Gold Market Reaction

Following the overall market sentiment, gold traded below $2,400 yesterday. Last week, gold experienced profit-booking after rallying to all-time highs above $2,480.

Another important factor to note is that gold has been in a bullish momentum for a couple of months due to growing expectations of a rate cut. This sentiment has already been priced into the gold market.

Upcoming Data Releases

This week, several important news events are scheduled that will impact the US Dollar. Two key releases stand out:

1. Advanced GDP q/q for the USA: Scheduled for 12:30 PM GMT on July 25.
2. Core PCE Price Index m/m: Scheduled for 12:30 PM GMT on July 26.

It's crucial to closely monitor both of these data releases for their potential impact on market sentiment.

Higher Time Frame Analysis and Key Levels in Gold

Monthly Candle Closing

The closing of this month's candle is crucial for us. As discussed in my previous analysis, the 2387.50 level is a key price because it represents last month's doji candle high. If this month's candle closes below this price, we could see a significant correction in gold. On the other hand, if the monthly candle closes above this key price, we could see a further bullish impulsive move above 2500.

Weekly Chart Insights

Looking at the weekly chart, last week's candle is a no demand candle, indicating potential selling in the coming weeks. Additionally, last week's candle closed below the previous week's candle closing, suggesting selling opportunities from solid levels this week.

Daily Chart and Market Structure

It's important to note that gold remains bullish when analyzing the daily frame market structure. It has formed a bullish break of structure (BOS) (refer below image). According to advanced market structure rules, when the market forms a BOS, we have two points of interest (POI) to join the current trend. Our first POI, which was in the 2430-2447 range, has been clearly broken. Now, the price may approach our second POI, which is around the 2300 level. Until the price breaks this level, we will remain bullish on gold.

4-Hour Chart Analysis and Market Structure

Gold Market Structure Analysis

Yesterday, gold was unable to break the last support on the 4-hour frame, which is in the 2391-2398 range (refer below image). As discussed in my previous analysis, this is a very strong static support zone according to advanced market structure principles.

Yesterday, the price attempted multiple times to break this support but failed. This is because buyers became active below this price, taking control from sellers. Additionally, there has been a liquidity sweep below this support zone on yesterday.

So until the market breaks this support with momentum candles or long-bodied bearish candles, we should not sell gold in this zone. If the price manages to break this support zone, we can consider selling on the retest. Conversely, if we see strong evidence of bullishness at this zone, we may initiate a buy from here.

1-Hour Frame Market Structure Analysis for XAUUSD

Intraday Trading Opportunities for Monday

Let's look at the 1-hour frame to identify intraday trading opportunities in the gold market for today.

In the 1-hour frame, gold has formed a change of character (ChoCh), indicating a shift from bullish to bearish bias according to the rules of advanced market structure. Additionally, gold has created five bearish waves against the previous bullish trend. This clearly indicates selling pressure in gold.

Points of Interest (POI) for Selling

As per the advanced market structure, after the last Break of Structure (BOS) was created (as shown in the image below), we have two POIs to initiate a selling trade in gold for intraday or scalping:

1. First POI: The 2394-2397 area. If the price shows a response in this area, we may initiate a sell from here.
2. Second POI: The 2407-2411 area. If the price approaches this area today, we may initiate another sell from here. This zone is the last resistance according to the 1-hour frame market structure. If we get two consecutive candle closings above this price zone, we should not sell anymore in gold and will shift our bias from bearish to bullish in the 1-hour frame.

This analysis provides a comprehensive outlook on XAUUSD, combining technical insights with upcoming economic data. It's essential to perform your own analysis and practice on a demo account before engaging in live trading. The market can be unpredictable, and proper preparation is crucial for success.

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