THE FOREX TRENDS

Technical Analysis of XAUUSD: Impact After getting an indication of slowing manufacturing in USA

Market Sentiment Analysis

The market sentiment remains consistent with the expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates. Yesterday, we saw the Bank of Canada cut their interest rates for the second time. This indicates that a global rate cut cycle has begun, and we can expect this trend to be adopted by central banks worldwide.

Additionally, yesterday's data showed a decline in the USA's manufacturing sector, signaling a gradual slowdown in the economy. This data further boosts the sentiment for a Fed rate cut.

To summarize the overall market sentiment: the bearish trend for the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) has begun and, from a long-term perspective, the DXY is expected to remain bearish.

4-Hour Chart Analysis and Market Structure

Gold Market Structure Analysis

Technically, if we look at gold on the 4-hour time frame, it is clearly bullish as per the market structure. The last support level in the 4-hour frame is at 2391-2398. As long as the price trades above this zone, we will remain bullish on gold. If gold revisits this zone, we can initiate a buy.

On the other hand, if gold breaks the 2391-2398 level with momentum candles, we may see short-term selling in gold. After the breakout and retest of this zone, we may initiate a sell in gold. Until then, no selling in gold.

1-Hour Frame Market Structure Analysis for XAUUSD

Intraday Trading Opportunities for Monday and Tuesday

Let's look at the 1-hour frame to identify intraday trading opportunities in the gold market for today and tomorrow.

As seen in the chart image below, gold has formed a Change of Character (ChoCh), shifting from a bearish to a bullish structure on the 1-hour frame. This indicates that gold is now bullish across all major time frames, which is a positive sign for initiating buy trades in gold.

Points of Interest (POI) for Buying

Now, let's identify the Points of Interest (POI) to initiate buy trades in gold for intraday purposes. The market created the last Break of Structure (BOS) with two POIs to join the current bullish trend.

1. First POI: 2418-2420. However, the price did not respect the first POI and moved below it. In this scenario, the chances of getting a good response from the second POI increase.
2. Second POI: 2409-2412. If the price reaches this level, we may initiate a buy from here.

Additionally, if the price breaks the last support of the 1-hour frame and closes two consecutive candles below this support, we may look for short-term selling in gold after a retest of this zone. Our target for the short-term sell will be the 2398 area, as it remains a strong support on the 4-hour frame.

This analysis provides a comprehensive outlook on XAUUSD, combining impact after getting an indication of slowing manufacturing in USA. It's essential to perform your own analysis and practice on a demo account before engaging in live trading. The market can be unpredictable, and proper preparation is crucial for success.

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